Ceresoran Civil War

Ceresoran Civil War
	Part of the Long War
	; top: aftermath of the Battle of Novigrad (1944); middle: refugees awaiting evacuation by train (1950); bottom: Savamese troops occupying Videlbo (1957)
Date	1943 - 1965
Location	Ceresora
Result	Novigrad Accords Formation of the Cislacunic Federation; Population exchanges within Ceresora; End of the Bragoni Monarchy;
Belligerents
Commanders and leaders
Casualties and losses
	Total c. 6 million deaths 1~1.5 million from combat; 0.5~1 million from democide; 4 million from famine;

The Ceresoran Civil War was a conflict that lasted from 1943 to 1965 in the Ceresoran Empire, with multiple factions fighting for national supremacy, independence or unification with other countries following the succession crisis that ended the Bragoni dynasty, brought about by the lack of a direct heir to the 92-year-old King Alessandro VIII.

The civil war is one of the main conflicts that occurred in Messenia during the Long War, and its conclusion in 1965 is seen by most as the closing act of the Long War period. It was a very complex multi-pronged conflict with shifting sides and allegiances, with a total of seven different factions or groups fighting each other at some point during the war's 22 years. Foreign players such as Savam, Odann, and Cantaire were also involved at different stages of the conflict either directly or indirectly, with Savam largely dictating the Novigrad Accords which concluded the conflict in the mid-1960s. Although it started at first over a constitutional crisis while attempts to work out a succession were made, it eventually devolved into ethno-religious violence with the final eruption of ethnic tensions that had been contained for decades by the strong leadership of the Bragoni sovereigns.

Events

Beginnings and Vallinia (1943–1944)

Although the elderly King Alessandro's unclear choice of succession was widely viewed as a gateway to disaster long before the war, it did not immediately paralyse the country, as Ceresora had a tradition of conciliar regencies by the Ceresoran nobility, known as the Comune, that could jointly govern the country as a commonwealth of Fondamento pioneers. There was much squabbling between Bragoni dynasts, but, per custom, none of them prematurely claimed the crown, and they at least ostensibly agreed to first work towards bringing about a stable political climate where the succession could be determined with unanimous public support. Still, this procedure was ancient when invoked in 1943, and now had to contend with widespread unrest that broke out along social divides, as well as regional governments (especially that of Tania) to carry forward their own agendas — which had happened during previous Comuni, but was now treated by opponents as intolerably dangerous in a more divided Ceresora of the 20th century.

By the end of 1943 the Legitimist political bloc in Cavino had assumed emergency powers, and had overruled all proposals at reform in the name of orderly procedure, which was denounced by many elements as a coup. In response a movement of Constitutionalists rallied around Carmine di Bragoni-Montefabia and, with Savamese support that intended to bring down the long-time ally of its rival Odann, instigated a rebellion in the north in the name of defending Ceresoran political tradition against the Legitimists' high-handed, illegal move. Insurrections also broke out in the southern regions. Fighting through early 1944 was mainly conducted by paramilitaries and police, with the army generally resisting direct involvement, but by Fabricad the Constitutionalists held much territory, and, believing the beleaguered government in Cavino to be on its last legs, a large Savamese invasion took place. The confrontation climaxed at the Battle of Novigrad and the clash of armies definitively proclaimed the collapse into which Ceresora was falling.

Astredo and Tania (1944–1947)

The Savamese withdrew their forces after the Third Feijerpoort Convention and set up the Mincio Demilitarised Zone in northern Ceresora: although they failed to bring about full regime change, which other Messenian powers checked them from doing, the stabilisation of their border with Ceresora and the elimination of a possibility of a stable Legitimist government upholding the Ceresoran-Odannach alliance were seen as acceptable accomplishments. The Constitutionalist army in Vallinia also agreed to a ceasefire, holding a parallel administration in the MDZ as a form of somewhat farcically accepted 'protest' against the Cavino government, which Feijerpoort deemed legitimate. However, the war only escalated further from here, with Cantaire intervening to assist the Legitimists alongside increased Odannach aid, in stabilising the southern regions against a Constitutionalist uprising in Astredo, and the Elmiesian-separatist Grigorites of Montana.

The outbreak of the Brexo-Cantairean War in 1945 led to the withdrawal of the Cantaireans (and with their defeat, an end to their intervention), which soon abetted the declaration of a Tanian Provisional Government that tried to resist dictation by Cavino, and a resurgence of southern Constitutionalists. Fighting from 1945 to 1947 was of a complex nature: the Ceresoran army was deployed in full force against the southern Constitutionalists, while the Tanian Provisionals seem to have been initially permitted some leeway with fighting concentrated elsewhere, but after paramilitary skirmishing by 1946 had assembled a movement of Terecotists aiming to put Ignazio di Bragoni-Terecota on the throne in view of continued hassling from Cavino. As the southern Constitutionalists were whittled down they increasingly drew their numbers from Elmiesians and Reinwalders with a more autonomist agenda, which fomented Cairo-Sirian religious tensions as the rebels were increasingly seen as a Sirian force.

This phase of the war was brought to an end by early 1947 with the Caserta Agreement, assembled in view of the alarming rise of the Terecotists as a viable and popular anti-Legitimist force, especially when the Constitutionalists had just been discredited as vehicles for minority rebellions or pro-Savamese treason. Carmine Montefabia had been long embarrassed by the backlash against the later turn of the Constitutionalists, and, though still firmly independent with Savamese protection, his northern government in Mincio agreed to be formally co-opted as an autonomous administration to spare him further accusations of contributing to the country's division; Montefabia resigned from his positions in 1948 and went into self-imposed exile. The Terecotists were similarly co-opted in Tania and Carabaghi, leaving the Legitimists with the central and south-western parts of Ceresora, and Massimo di Bragoni-Opagna – who had rode the support of fellow hard-liners to push aside the Legitimists’ original leader Giulio di Carcano in Animare of that year – in nominal control of the country.

Opagna period (1948–1959)

Blaming Sirians, Reformers, and other minorities for political instability and the country's division, the Puritan-inspired Legitimist leadership promoted sectarian policies to strengthen Orthodox support for itself. An increasingly confident Opagna bluntly repudiated the Caserta Agreement at the end of 1949, eventually instigating persecutions that escalated into mass murders beginning in the new year. Open fighting between Legitimists and Terecotists ensued, producing atrocities such as the Cantoira Massacre and the Siege of Straviţi. Odann, already cornered and almost isolated in the late stages of the Savamo-Odannach Cold War, withdrew its support for the Legitimists. After sustaining heavy losses, the Terecotists collapsed politically when in 1952 Ignazio Terecota was killed by a landmine. These events, however, only saw the war in Tania become more brutal, as the resurrection of the Tanian Provisional Government and its separatist ambitions, as well as the Elmiesian Grigorites, led ethnic warfare to become the basic consideration of campaigns. Symmetrical fighting in the south ended by early 1954, although ethnic violence continued, and many whose communities were identified with the Terecotist coalition were deported to concentration camps where they perished under harsh conditions.

The centre of anti-Legitimist efforts pivoted back north to the autonomous government in the MDZ, where a Federalist movement was being assembled based on new political aspirations in face of the horrors from former Terecotists and defecting moderate Legitimists. After an interlude of some years where war took a back-seat to sectarianism under Opagna as the main horror endured by Ceresorans, with Savamese support they declared war on the Legitimists in 1957 and initiated a steady campaign to push south. These efforts, however, were slowed by the disaster which the years without summers wrought on an already devastated Ceresora. In the meantime, the Congress of Kethpor in early 1959 would grant Savam the authority to settle the Ceresoran conflict as it saw fit.

Savamese invasion and insurgency (1959–1965)

A full Savamese invasion in 1959 (after delays, owing to uncertainties prior to Kethpor and logistics issues related to the years without summers) brought about the rapid collapse of the Legitimist state. By 1960 the Legitimists had been cut up into pockets of recalcitrant Orthodox soldiers and insurgents, while Savamese and Federalist forces dominated most of the country; by 1961 all coherent Legitimist forces were destroyed and Opagna himself was captured to face trial. An Orthodox insurgency continued for years, but largely petered out by the war's formal end; the more significant conflict that prolonged it was the disputes over the Tanian Provisional Government and various Grigorite proto-states in the south, with which several skirmishes were fought until constitutional settlements satisfied the Tanians by 1962 and the Elmiesians by 1965.

Conclusion

The Novigrad Accords, finalised in Empery 1965, brought peace back to Ceresora, allowing the formation of the Cislacunic Federation. The Legitimists were thoroughly defeated and a series of compromises was made with separatists allowing for Ceresora's unity to be maintained, albeit through a loose confederal system. Savam dictated a significant part of the Accords, having obtained the Great Powers' carte blanche at Kethpor. Nevertheless, it did not entirely reduce Ceresora to a client in the Ceresoran Reconstruction due to the diversity of interests involved in the ballo dei betoniori.

Casualties and mass murders

In total, about six million people died during the conflict. Combat resulted in at least one million fatalities and as many as 1.5 million; the bloodiest phase was the 1950–1954 war in Tania where 50% to 70% of deaths took place. Mass murders encompassed both massacres, which were often attributed to combat deaths where they overlapped with insurgencies, as well as deaths from death marches and concentration camps various groups were forced into; these are estimated as having killed half to one million depending on the delineation. Around another four million starved to death between 1958 and 1963 during the years without summers, which disproportionately affected a war-ravaged Ceresora. Massive population exchanges took place during and after the war, along religio-cultural lines. About five million were displaced internally, while 2.7 million Ceresoran reformers were re-settled in the Savamese Empire.

The Ceresoran Civil War imparted a particular shock on the Messenian collective psyche due to the unprecedented scale of organised mass murder campaigns, which took three million lives over the course of the conflict (with one million in just three years in 1949-52), unseen in the continent's history.

Puritan extremism, fostered by Massimo di Bragoni-Opagna, the Legitimist leader, and Holy Mother Erminia di Faris from 1949, has been blamed as the main culprit for those massacres, but other factions also committed large-scale atrocities. Both current and post-war historians have criticised the dominant political philosophy of Avantismo, inspired by Federalist compromises, during the heydays of the Ceresoran Reconstruction (roughly the 1970s and 1980s) for stifling scholarship on the war's atrocities and accepting the "simplistic" explanation of Puritan culpability, a narrative largely reinforced by the 1972 Humiliabitur address by the Argan of Ceresora. Messenian Great Powers Savam and Odann have been accused to have tolerated, and even encouraged, atrocities, especially for Savam with Reformer groups that are not conventionally seen as the perpetrators of massacres during the civil war.